Cassava: Africa’s Alternative to Turbulent Wheat Markets?

Cassava: Africa’s Alternative to Turbulent Wheat Markets?

An insightful African proverb reminds us — that “those who accomplish great things pay attention to little ones”. This proverb reminds us that to make progress, nothing, no matter how one may perceive it as small, should be ignored.

In 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa’s spiralling food import bill — stood at $43 billion, and this is projected to reach $110bn by 2025. This money should be flowing in to support African businesses, not out. At the same time, Africa is losing food worth $48 billion in annual PHLs that Africa faces each year, which can be recouped and translated into income opportunities for agro-value chain actors and young people while preserving ecological resources and preventing pollution.

Global events in the past week have laid bare Africa’s vulnerabilities that have arisen from many years of ignoring what is vital for being considered small. For example, In 2020/21, Africa represented up to 36% of Ukraine’s total wheat exports, becoming the largest regional destination of Ukrainian wheat. The price of wheat in the international market has already increased by 50%. The top four African importers of Russian and Ukrainian wheat spent over $10billion from 2016. With the ongoing events we have seen in the past week, the continent’s import bill will only increase.

Already a number of African countries are facing an increased cost of wheat imports. In Cameroon, wheat prices have almost doubled. In Egypt, bread prices have increased by 1.5times. Import prices have increased by 1.6times and the wheat import bill by over $900million. Nigeria has seen a 50% increase or 1.5times higher for food items made out of wheat. In Kenya, bread prices are set to increase up to 1.2times increase in wheat prices. These increased import prices directly affect depleting foreign reserves that would otherwise play a key role in strengthening local financial markets and economies in general.

One thing that cannot be wished away is that Africa has not lacked better alternatives to wheat as starchy food, from where the region can engage more competitively. I am talking of cassava as an alternative that can be added to blend wheat or used as a pure flour to substitute wheat in many multiple delicacies.

So Why Cassava?

From environmental to economic and business perspectives, cassava stands above the wheat.

Environmentally speaking, science tells us that wheat production is projected to fall by as much as 36% across the globe because of climate change. This happens even as the latest science by the IPCC in the 6th Assessment Report concluded that the world is set to breach the safe threshold of 1.5°C temperature rise in a decade. This reality sends a clear message of scarcity in global wheat supplies in the very near future. This means prices will only escalate, and dependence on imports further becomes costlier to deplete the continent’s reserves.

But can Africa then invest in growing more of its wheat?

The risk of climate change in Africa is worse. As a region, Africa is disproportionately vulnerable to the changing climate. The region is already heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe, and some 20 countries cutting across all the regions of Africa, are already warming more quickly than the globe. Africa’s climate is naturally highly diverse & variable, to begin with. Within the same continent, we have extreme aridity of the Saharan deserts and extreme humidity of the Congo rainforest. These extreme circumstances, to start with, coupled with nearness to the equator, which makes for more direct sun, makes the multiplier effect of the changing climate far worse compared to other continents across the globe that are not as diverse. This is to say that the wheat yield reductions for Africa will worsen, and investing to increase production will be a riskier choice for the continent.

But these risks cannot be said for cassava. Even with increased harsh weather and moisture stress, cassava is the only crop with the lowest losses at 8%, compared to 20% for the second closest staples on the continent. In addition, cassava presents significant socioeconomic benefits for Africa. It can be value-added into 300 diverse products. In addition, cassava has unique market & health qualities that make it a high-value crop globally. Cassava is gluten, grain and nut-free, and a vegan, vegetarian, and paleo carbohydrate. This makes it a leading “allergen-free” food whose global market is worth $23.5 billion.

The global gluten-free market alone is worth $7.59 billion in 2020. This is an indicator of the market advantage of “allergen-free” foods that Africa’s cassava can tap into.

These advantages have already been projected for Africa’s largest producer — Nigeria — which put together a cassava bread policy to catalyze investments in cassava. This policy, however, has yet to be fully prioritized. The full implementation of the cassava bread policy has been projected will create hundreds of thousands of employment opportunities — about 260,000 in cassava farming, over 40,000 in the processing of high-quality cassava flour, and about 3000 in manufacturing equipment — including accessible equipment like climate action solutions of solar driers. These are reserved estimates — for flour only. Let’s consider the 300 products that cassava can be processed into and factor in a multiplier effect of just 2. It translates to over 600,000 jobs, excluding transportation and bread improvers value chains.

The bottom line is that there will be external shocks that will affect the continent. The current shock, which has affected wheat and oil prices coming in close succession with the COVID-19 emergency, is yet another reminder that Africa cannot for one moment continue with its externalization of solutions to its problems, especially under the changing climate. Local productive climate action solutions, leveraging what is already working in the continent, must urgently target the continent’s investments. If the $10billion expended in wheat imports were put into cassava value chain development, commercialization, and industrialization, today’s story would have been different. It would be a story of opportunity and well-insulated local economies, not vulnerability.